The I that is Lie Flike
it's raining this morning, dripping really. random taps of disinterested rain, it's a sad sound. the weekend is over but i've taken the night off from work, for no particular reason. i walked, read (roy's 'the god of small things'), watched bits of news. yesterday i scraped out excessively baked debris from the bottom of the oven, assisted by benevolent chemicals. smiling chemicals, wrapped in soft and loving colors. with a week before the election i am now going into a media black out. i already know the outcome, but the loss will still be devastating, so i'm trying to emotionally prepare myself. soothing sounds only this week, none of the harsh stabs of political blather, false and peircing. my fuzzy slippers need cobbling.
i suppose i'll put my impressions here about what will happen. the popular vote will be exceptionally close, bush will lose that by small margin. the electoral college, however, bush will win by a solid margin, thanks in large part to the south and perhaps an upset in a blue state (colorado? ohio?). the vote in certain states will be so close that they will be open to litigation, but this will only happen if bush loses the electoral college. republicans are far better organized and their attack machine is far more effective than the democracts, which means that if it does come down to disputed vote counts and litigation, the pr fights surrounding each court case will be ugly and the republicans will do a better job of crying foul and winning back the presidency. if kerry loses by a very small margin the democrats just aren't organized enough to win public support and court battles. this means that kerrys only hope is to win two to three upset states himself and assure a solid electoral win which, again, won't happen. my only hope is that all of this anti-bush activism that is taking place will transform itself into sustained social activism after the election and not simply vanish, i'm really worried that bush's win will elicit a huge amout of apathy. on the bright side my opinions are utterly worthless and i am wrong not just often, but only. thanks.
i suppose i'll put my impressions here about what will happen. the popular vote will be exceptionally close, bush will lose that by small margin. the electoral college, however, bush will win by a solid margin, thanks in large part to the south and perhaps an upset in a blue state (colorado? ohio?). the vote in certain states will be so close that they will be open to litigation, but this will only happen if bush loses the electoral college. republicans are far better organized and their attack machine is far more effective than the democracts, which means that if it does come down to disputed vote counts and litigation, the pr fights surrounding each court case will be ugly and the republicans will do a better job of crying foul and winning back the presidency. if kerry loses by a very small margin the democrats just aren't organized enough to win public support and court battles. this means that kerrys only hope is to win two to three upset states himself and assure a solid electoral win which, again, won't happen. my only hope is that all of this anti-bush activism that is taking place will transform itself into sustained social activism after the election and not simply vanish, i'm really worried that bush's win will elicit a huge amout of apathy. on the bright side my opinions are utterly worthless and i am wrong not just often, but only. thanks.
posted by Samwick @ 6:29 AM
1 Comments:
At 12:11 PM,
Anonymous said…
There is always hope, my friend. It took many, many years and the work of many nations to defeat Hitler but in the end, he took a gun to his head and died a lonely death as befitted such a twisted little man.
I'm not suggesting this will happen to Bush. I am saying that the fight may not be over come your Election Day and you should be prepared for that, as I think you are. If he wins, or steals it again, then you can join the many groups who oppose him and the destructive, oppressive things he stands for if you aren't a member of any already. From the perspective of an outsider, I'm seeing US left-wing groups coming together in a way that has never been seen before. That has to be good, and it has to continue regardless of whether Bush is hung out to dry or not.
I am lighting a candle in the run up to your election and, along with many others following all manner of belief systems, including none to speak of at all, praying for positive change in your great nation.
Blessed be.
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